I’ve decided that since Spring Training is fast approaching, I would take a look at the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates and offer up some personal thoughts and opinions on each player.  I will also examine the player’s history and try to predict the type of season they will have in 2009.

1) Ryan Doumit
Date of Birth: 4/3/1981
Height:  6’1″   Weight: 210 lbs

Contract
Ryan Doumit joins a short list of players that Neal Huntingdon has inked to long term deals.  Doumit’s contract is for three guaranteed years and two option years, which will take him through 2013.  According to the Post-Gazette, the contract break down is as follows:  $2.05 million in 2009, $3.55 million in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011.
The club option for both years will have to be exercised or rejected
after 2011. If picked up, Doumit would get $7.25 million in 2012 and
$8.25 million in 2013. If declined, Doumit would receive a $500,000
buyout and become a free agent.  Who got the better end of this deal?  I would say the Pirates did.  Although Doumit has been injury prone in the past, finding a catcher who can put up offensive numbers like Doumit is capable of doing is rare.

Miscellaneous Facts:
Favorite Vacation Spot: Jamaica
Favorite Musical Artist: Pearl Jam
Athlete Most Admired When Growing Up: Will “The Thrill” Clark
Athlete He’d Like to Meet:  Muhammed Ali
First Job: Stockboy at a Grocery Store
Favorite TV Show:  That 70′s Show
Famous Person He’d Like to meet (Dead or Alive):  John F. Kennedy

Value:
Batting – wRAA (Runs Above Average) with a park adjustment.
Fielding – The sum of a player’s UZR.
Replacement – The replacement level adjustment set at 20 Runs / 600 PA.
Positional – The positional adjustment set using Tangotiger’s values (see this link)
Value Runs – The sum of Batting, Fielding, Replacement, and Positional.
Value Wins – Value Runs converted to a wins scale.
Dollars – Value Wins converted to the following dollar scale:

It’s impressive to see that Doumit was worth 17.6 Million Dollars last season based on the runs he created and wins that wouldn’t have happened with out him.

Performance:
In 1713 Career Minor League AB’s, Doumit put up a .295 batting average, 119 2B’s, 48 HR’s, 290 RBI’s, and .819 OPS .  The HR’s may seem a little low, but this is the case with many minor leaguers, they grow into their power.

At the Major League level, Doumit has produced the following statistics: (from baseball reference.com)

Yr Age  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG  
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----
 '05 24  75  231   25   59  13  1   6   35   2  1  11  48  .255  .324  .398   
 '06 25  61  149   15   31   9  0   6   17   0  0  15  42  .208  .322  .389   
 '07 26  83  252   33   69  19  2   9   32   1  2  22  59  .274  .341  .472  
 '08 27 116  431   71  137  34  0  15   69   2  2  23  55  .318  .357  .501  
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----
 (4 Yrs)335 1063  144  296  75  3  36  153   5  5  71 204  .278  .341  .456 

Albeit a small one, we can see a trend started to develop over the past two years, as a result of Doumit seeing regular playing time.  His AB/HR ratio has improved from 35.68 AB/HR in the minors to 28 AB/HR in 2007 and 28.73 AB/HR in 2008. 

If Doumit can replicate his performance from 2008 in ’09, the Pirates should be pleased.  Since making predictions is fun, and its some people’s job.  Let’s take a look at how Doumit is predicted to perform in 2009.

Let’s take a look at how Doumit is predicted to perform in 2009 according to respected guru Bill James, and Marcel Fantasy Baseball:

Looking over these numbers, Bill James is prepared to predict that Doumit will continue to improve in 2009.  He allows Doumit will play in 18 or so more games than 2009 and be more productive in every offensive category except for batting average, with a slight dip of 13 points.

Marcel is a bit more pessimistic when calculating Doumit’s numbers.  It appears they believe Doumit is apt to become injured and not be as productive as he was in 2008.

I think Doumit will continue to have breakout success.  I predict his average will dip just below .300 in the coming season, but his power numbers will improve. 

I would be interested to see what you think Doumit’s 2009 numbers will be.  Please leave a comment and make your predictions.  It will be interesting to log back in when October rolls around and see who was closest on Doumit’s 2009 season.

–Erik