2012 AL East Predictions

Opening Day is fast approaching, spring training camps are set to open any day now, and many teams have begun selling individual game tickets.  Fans all around the country are getting ready for baseball season and offering their opinions on how their team is going to do.  I’ve decided to do the same.  Rather than do a team-by-team break down, I’ll offer my predictions by division.

I’ve also included 2012 Predicted statistics from the 2012 Major League Baseball Yearbook and Fantasy Guide

I’ll start with the American League East.

In 2011, the Yankees took the division, while the Rays capitalized on the Red Sox epic collapse to earn second place and a wild card spot.  Toronto played decent ball in baseball’s toughest division, finishing with as many wins as losses, and Baltimore brought up the rear of the division.

So, here’s my picks:

1st place:  New York Yankees (My projection 96-66)
The Yankees made a major move during the offseason, acquiring Michael Pineda from the Mariners to shore up their rotation.  Their rotation is anchored by CC Sabathia, who along with Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, and Pineda, should be about average.

The Yankees have a great offense.  C Russell Martin is not much of an offensive threat, but the Yankees have Mark Teixeria, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher to provide the firepower – all of who have 25+ home run potential.  It will be interesting to see how Derek Jeter does as he enters his age 38 season.  Might this be his last as a starting shortstop before age necessitates a position switch to the outfield or DH?  Speaking of Jeter, will he still hit leadoff, or will Girardi put speedster Brett Gardner there?

Of course, the Yankees have a weapon that no other team has in Mariano Rivera, the best closer in Major League Baseball history.

Here’s the Yankees 2012 Statistical Projections (AVG-HR-RBI):
C Russell Martin .242-15-59
1B Mark Teixeira .253-36-108
2B Robinson Cano .308-28-114
3B Alex Rodriguez .271-26-101
SS Derek Jeter .297-8-65
LF Brett Gardner .261-6-37
CF Curtis Granderson .258-35-103
RF Nick Swisher .268-23-84

SP CC Sabathia 21-8, 3.12 ERA, 231 IP, 213 K
SP Hideki Kuroda 15-12, 3.49 ERA, 211.1 IP, 171 K
SP Ivan Nova 14-7, 4.10 ERA, 167 IP, 101 K
SP Freddy Garcia 12-7, 4.13 ERA, 153 IP, 96 K
SP Phil Hughes 13-9, 4.60 ERA, 172 IP, 134K
SP Michael Pineda 13-12, 3.96 ERA, 200 IP, 203 K
RP Mariano Rivera 1.78 ERA, 61 IP, 57 K, 40 Saves
RP David Robertson 2.19 ERA, 66 IP, 98 K, 2 Saves

2nd Place: Tampa Bay Rays (My prediction 90-72)
I kept going back and forth between the Rays and Red Sox for my second place pick.  I ultimately decided that the Rays had a better pitching staff that the Red Sox along with miracle worker Joe Maddon.

The Rays offense isn’t nearly as strong as the Yankees and Red Sox.  They have Evan Longoria, but besides him, there’s not much else that makes me say, ‘wow.’  BJ Upton has been up and down his whole career, but there’s some in the business who think that he could break out in a big way in 2012 – just like Matt Kemp did for the Dodgers last year.

I really like the Rays pitching staff.   All five starters are dependable and should keep the Rays in the game day in and day out.

Here’s the Tampa Bay Rays’ 2012 Statistical Projections:
C Jose Molina .266-8-39
1B Carlos Pena .236-32-93
2B Ben Zobrist .264-18-91
3B Evan Longoria .268-36-91
SS Sean Rodriguez .229-9-51
LF Desmond Jennings .269-15-50
CF BJ Upton .241-20-72
RF Sam Fuld .266-2-23
OF Matt Joyce .270-21-86
DH Luke Scott .249-22-59

SP James Shields 14-13, 3.57 ERA, 227 IP, 226 K
SP David Price 15-11, 3.12 ERA, 219 IP, 216 K
SP Jeremy Hellickson 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 219 IP, 145 K
SP Matt Moore 12-10, 3.99 ERA, 160 IP, 163 K
SP Wade Davis 11-10, 4.09 ERA, 189 IP, 114 K
RP Kyle Farnsworth 2.30 ERA, 23 saves, 55 IP, 51 K
RP Joel Peralta 3.44 ERA, 5 saves, 71 IP, 73 K

3′rd place:  Boston Red Sox (My prediction 87-75)
The Red Sox crashed and burned in 2011, missing the playoffs despite holding a nine game advantage heading into September.  I believe that they will narrowly miss the playoffs again in 2012.  Red Sox nation is excited to have Bobby Valentine at the helm.  A new manager will bring a new voice and hopefully hold all of the players accountable for their actions.  Are the Red Sox players too whiny?  How will they take to Bobby V?  The Red Sox have an offense that rivals that Yankees, but they’re pitching staff isn’t as good.  And my bold predictions are the Kevin Youkilis absolutely tanks this year while Carl Crawford rebounds from a poor 2011.

2012 Red Sox Statistical Projections:
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia .230-18-62
1B Adrian Gonzalez .337-34-136
2B Dustin Pedroia .308-24-101
3B Kevin Youkilis .282-24-99
SS Mike Aviles .275-9-45
LF Carl Crawford .274-13-68
CF Jacoby Ellsbury .316-25-81
RF Ryan Sweeney .272-4-53
DH David Ortiz .292-26-96

SP Jon Lester 16-9, 3.43 ERA, 194 IP, 197 K
SP Josh Beckett 13-9, 3.67 ERA, 191 IP, 176 K
SP Clay Buchholz 13-7, 3.27 ERA, 154 IP, 112K
SP Alfredo Aceves 12-7, 3.72 ERA, 172 IP, 122 K
SP Daniel Bard 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 62.1 IP, 65 K
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka 6-5, 4.89 ERA, 96 IP, 80 K
RP Andrew Bailey 2.52 ERA, 38 SV, 54 IP, 49 K
RP Mark Melancon 3.39 ERA, 4 SV, 72 IP, 67 K

4th Place:  Toronto Blue Jays (My prediction 79-83)
I am the least familiar with the Toronto Blue Jays of the five teams in the AL East.  Their only player that I keep an eye on is Jose Bautista, who for a while was my favorite player on the Pirates. I loved that he was versatile and played infield and outfield for the Buccos.  He used to play center field and toss balls into the stands between innings.  I caught his 10th career home run on the fly.  I’ve loved the guy ever since.  Of course, the Pirates traded him for some bum named Robinzon Diaz, and then he became arguably the best player in the MLB after he left town.

Here’s their 2012 statistical predictions:
C JP Arencibia .223-25-83
1B Adam Lind .246-25-83
2B Kelly Johnson .238-22-59
3B Brett Lawrie .304-13-70
SS Yunel Escobar .298-10-53
LF Eric Thames .257-13-40
CF Colby Rasmus .254-18-62
RF Jose Bautista .284-41-99
DH Edwin Encarnacion .268-21-65

SP Ricky Romero 15-10, 3.30 ERA, 213 IP, 170 K
SP Brandon Morrow 13-12, 4.65 ERA, 201 IP, 230 K
SP Brett Cecil 10-14, 4.08 ERA, 212 IP, 146 K
SP Henderson Alvarez 10-9, 4.13 ERA, 146 IP, 105 K
SP Dustin McGowan 7-8, 4.10 ERA, 123 IP, 102 K
RP Sergio Santos 3.64 ERA, 29 saves, 59 IP, 88 K
RP Casey Janssen 2.78 ERA, 1 save, 58 IP, 53 K

5th Place:  Baltimore Orioles (My prediction: 69-93)
The Baltimore Orioles haven’t had a winning season in years.  Fourteen years to be exact.  They’ve toiled at or near the division for all these years, not able to succeed with the big spending Yankees and Red Sox in their division.  You have to feel bad for them.  I can relate.  My favorite team, the Pirates, haven’t had a winning record in 20 years.  However, I do believe the Pirates have a better chance of a winning season that the Orioles since the Buccos don’t play the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox 18 times.  That’s tough.  Frustratingly tough.

The Orioles have a few decent players in Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, but not much else.  Their rotation looks dreadful.

2012 Statistical Projections:
C Matt Wieters .280-23-74
1B Mark Reynolds .219-36-85
2B Brian Roberts .260-8-42
3B Josh Bell .260-9-40
3B Wilson Betemit .286-9-44
SS JJ Hardy .266-28-82
LF Nolan Reimold .247-21-72
CF Adam Jones .285-27-83
RF Nick Markakis .286-15-72
DH Chris Davis .273-9-35

SP Jake Arrieta 12-11, 5.05 ERA, 162 IP, 118K
SP Tsuyoshi Wada 11-11, 4.23 ERA, 202 IP, 136 K
SP Zach Britton 11-10, 4.76 ERA, 144 IP, 91 K
SP Brian Matusz 7-15, 5.97 ERA, 146 IP, 118 K
RP Jim Johnson 2.63 ERA, 22 SV, 82 IP 66 K
RP Kevin Gregg 4.25 ERA, 12 SV, 59 IP, 56 K

So, to summarize, I’ve got
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles

How do you think they’ll finish?

Leave a comment.  Thanks to Frank Peavy for pointing out several roster moves that weren’t reflected in this post.  They’ve since been edited.

49 days until opening day, 2 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and 3 days left to win this Dustin Pedroia T-Shirt.

21 Comments

I’d say the top three spots are going to be a bit closer than you predicted–but I’ll agree with the rankings. Hopefully, Tampa Bay can pull off a Wild Card berth again. They seem to always find a way…
~Matt

Love the brawl pics! Youkilis looks like an angry lumberjack.
- Malcolm
http://theballparkguide.mlblogs.com/

very generous HR projections for some of the O’s. hope they can do that.

My only issue is with some omissions on your part: Kuroda in the Yankees rotation, Scutaro is now with Colorado (Aviles will start at SS for the Red Sox), Daniel Bard will be in Boston’s rotation, Wilson Betemit will likely get the lion’s share of 3B start in Baltimore, Chen is likely the 2-3 in Baltimore, and you left him off your list..

Frank,
Thanks for your help with the omissions! I’ve fixed them.

I’d go:
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

I can see the Rays being up top but eventually fizzling out.

I think it is
Sox
Yanks
Jays
Rays
O’s
Its probably not too realistic but that is how I would like it to go.

How on earth can you have the Jays beating out the Rays, pitch for the Jay is almost non existent.

RAYS
yanks
sox
jays
o’s

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My predictions are..

1- Red Sox
2- Jays
3- Yankees
4- Rays
5- Orioles

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Probably got the divisions standings right. Other players to look out for for The Blue Jays based on story lines will be Brett Lawrie (Canadian wunderkid who tore it up in the majors after a late call up, played too many games otherwise would be a lock for rookie of the year this year), JP Arencibia (2nd year catcher, great guy but looking over his shoulder at our number 1 prospect in the organization, Travis D’Arnauld, who we received as part of the Halliday) and Colby Rasmus (Tony LaRussa’s rejected hairbear bunch centre fielder).

Joey Bats is a great guy – all class and a great leader. Just needed more playing time with you guys.

Nice post. Will be seeing the Pirates triple A team in Indy in May as part of a 2 week baseball road trip. Any player recommendations to look out for prospect wise?

http://kingofthepunditslive.wordpress.com/

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You are clearly the least familiar with the Jays as you pointed out. They will surprise and they will compete in the A.L. East. They will be an above .500 team and I believe they eclipse the 85 win mark. Being the “Canadian team”, the Jays are often overlooked and/or underestimated, but their rotation will prove to be solid and they will benefit from a couple of bounce back years from position players. You’ll see.

Extreme disappointment in this article. You’re credibility is tarnished when you said Stephen Drew had a down year last year without the mention that he broke his ankle half way through and didn’t return. Down year? Duh! But of course, you didn’t know this, looked at his stats, and assumed he played the whole year with these stats. This is nothing more than an article reflecting your emotion as a fan.

True, but in his playing time, his OPS was still 97 points lower than the previous year.

you should get to know the Jays…. if you researched them, you’d change your order. Also, thanks for Jose. ;)

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