Today, I’ll take a look at Paul Maholm, his past performance, and how we can expect Paul to fare in 2009.

Contract:
The Pirates attempted to sign Maholm, Nate McLouth, and Ryan Doumit to long term contracts this winter.  To date, only Doumit has signed a multi-year deal, with McLouth and Maholm being far from agreeing to terms with the Pirates.  Paul made $424,500 last year, and is due a big raise in his first year of arbitration eligibility.  Even if the Pirates can’t hammer out a deal with Paul’s agent, they will still control his rights for the next 3 seasons.

Miscellaneous Facts:
Favorite Vacation Spot: Hawaii (maybe he hangs out with Yates there)
Favorite Musical Artist: Brad Paisley
Athlete Most Admired Growing Up:Tom Glavine
Athlete He’d Like To Meet : Tiger Woods
First Job : Golf Bag Boy at a Country Club
Favorite TV Show : Entourage
Famous Person He’d Like to Meet : Jack Nicklaus

Performance:
Paul put together a fine year in 2008, although the win total wasn’t where he’d like it to be.

According to Bill James, Paul will have an average season in 2009, and produce a losing record, which may be a direct result of lack of run support.  James has Maholm throwing roughly the same number of innings, giving up slightly more hits, walking 6 more batters, and striking out 5 less batters than in 2008.  In short, James thinks Maholm will not be able to duplicate his breakout 2008 season, but will come close.

Marcel’s ratings feature Paul with a losing record at 9-10, a respectable ERA at 4.20.  However, Marcel has Paul’s innings down a bit, possibly predicting an injury in 2009. 

I think that Bill James’ 2009 predictions in regards to Paul are fairly spot on, except I think that he’ll post a slightly higher ERA than in 2008 (but lower than what James/Marcel are predicting).  I also think that Paul will finally post that first winning record since his rookie season, despite a dismal offense by the Pirates.

On most teams, Paul would be a solid #3 starter, but on the Pirates in 2009, he’ll be looked upon to be the ace of the staff.  After falty seasons by Snell and Gorzelanny, GM Neal Huntindon said himself on his radio show near the end of 2008 that there would be no guaranteed spots in the rotation.  Except for Paul Maholm.  When the Pirates began Spring Training in 2008, the rotation was already determined.  Some in the Pirates brass feel that this may have created some complacency on the part of the Pirates pitchers, leading to the worst starting rotation in Major League Baseball in 2008.  (Maholm was the lone bright spot).

If Paul can build upon his success in 2008, the Pirates may have found their ace.  (When is the last time we actually had a true “ace”  …. Drabek?)

–Erik

Countdown to:
Pitchers and Catchers Report: 44 days
Pirates First 2009 Game: 95 days
Pirates Home Opener:  102 days