Nate McLouth had a break out season in 2009, and along with Paul
Maholm, was one of the few bright spots to come from the Pirates’ 16th
consecutive losing season.

Contract:
2009 will be Nate’s first year of arbitration eligibility, and he is
guaranteed a big raise.  The Pirates have tried to sign McLouth to a
long term deal, but they are far apart on the numbers.  The chances of
getting a long term deal done are “close to dead.”  Nate made $425,000
in 2008.  He will remain under the Pirates’ control for the next three
years.

Miscellaneous Facts:
Favorite Vacation Spot: Cancun
Favorite Musical Artist: Rascal Flatts
Athlete Admired Growing Up: Ken Griffey Jr.
Athlete You’d Like to Meet: Michael Jordan
First Job: Baseball
Favorite TV Show: 24
Famous Person You’d Like to Meet (Dead or Alive): George Washington

Performance:
Nate set personal bests in just about every offensive category in 2008,
was the Pirate’s lone representative in the All-Star game (he threw out
a runner at the plate), and won his first career Gold Glove.  No wonder
he and the Pirates are far apart in their salaray negotiations.  I
think the Pirates would be better off to wait a year and see if Nate
can duplicate his 2008 numbers.  The Pirates have been burned on recent
contract offers (Freddy Sanchez, Ian Snell) in the fact that they’ve
given long term deals, and the players performances have dropped
dramatically.

A look at Nate’s career numbers and 2009 projections:

Career Totals through ’08  436  1305  341   89   9   51 245  160  125  249  5    5    261

If you look at the 2009 projections, Bill James, Marcel, and myself all
think that Nate will drop off a bit in 2009.  If you recall, McLouth
set the world on fire the first month of 2008.  He had a fantastic
first half.  In the second half though, either Nate tired or pitchers
began to figure him out. 

Nate’s First half vs. Second half splits:

Split    G  AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-+--+-+-+---+----+---+---+
1st Half 90 367  69 103 33  3 19  65 36 50 11  .281 .357 .542 .899     
2nd Half 62 230  44  62 13  1  7  29 29 43 12  .270 .355 .426 .781   

First of all, the first half is always longer than the second half, so
it’s not a perfect 81/81 game split.  But we can see a frightening drop
off in Nate’s power and run production numbers.  One can attribute a
lack of RBI’s to an overall inferior lineup after Bay and Nady were
traded.  Still, Nate’s doubles, triples, and homers were all down,
suggesting that Nate was not driving the ball with the authority he had
in the first half.  This is one of the main reasons why I can’t predict
Nate will hit 30 HR and drive in 110 RBI in 2009, like some Pittsburgh
fans would like to think.

Also, Nate’s numbers differentiate greatly based on where he hits in the order.

Split         AB  R  H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  
+-+------------+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+---+---+
Batting 1st  326  67 89 32  1 17  55 37 45 .273 .362 .534 .895  
Batting 2nd   61  12 16  4  1  6  14  6 10 .262 .333 .656 .989  
Batting 3rd  208  34 59 10  2  3  24 22 38 .284 .352 .394 .746  

Some have predicted that Nate will bat 3rd in 2009.  This would seem
logical due to the fact that Nyjer Morgan projects to be the everyday
left fielder at this point.  The most likely line up in my opinion
would be Morgan batting first, Sanchez batting second (he really should
be 8th, but Russell loves him in the 2 spot), McLouth 3rd, and Doumit
4th. 

McLouth’s production from the 3rd spot is frighteningly mediocre.  Yes,
his average was very good, but just take one look at his slugging
percentage and you’ll realize that McLouth feels most comfortable in
the leadoff spot. 

If Nate under performs in 2009 in the 3rd spot of the batting order, I
wouldn’t mind Russell going back to his 2008 strategy of batting the
pitcher 8th.  Nyjer could bat 9th, allowing Nate to be in his comfort
zone at the top of the order.

Not to bore you with more statistics, but some statisticians were
shocked to see Nate selected as a gold glove winner in 2008.  True,
McLouth did not commit many errors in 2008, but take a look at these
fielding statistics:

So what do those numbers mean?  Here’s a glossary of some of the categories you may not recognize:

Fielding

DG (defensive games): The number of outs made by an
average fielder at his position given the exact distribution of balls
in play for that player divided by the number of outs an average player
at that position makes per game.

exO (expected outs): The number of outs plus
reached base errors that would be made by an average fielder given the
distribution of balls in play while that fielder was on the field.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or
below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to
get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or
below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes
as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same
distribution of balls in play.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

The numbers say that Nate was 16.6 runs below average in 2008 as a
center fielder.  With a pitching staff as bad as it was in 2008, those
were 16 runs that the Pirates could not afford to give up.  Nate may best be
suited for RF at some point, based on these highly complex and precise
fielding metrics.

In 2009 we can expect McLouth to be a decent player, but do not set your expectations too high.

–Erik

Countdown:
Pitchers and Catchers: 41 days
Opening Day:  92 days
Home Opener: 99 days